It seems nearly every financial publication released today has the term “bubble” in it somewhere. Many of us know it’s a bad thing, but what does it really mean and how do they happen? Do they truly have an effect on the average consumer? Hopefully we can clear up the confusion of what an economic bubble is and determine if we can know when one is occurring.
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What Is An Economic Bubble?
Economic bubbles happen when trade of a specific item (like a stock, asset, product, or service) is artificially inflated beyond normal standards of trade. On a graph, this looks much like a bubble! The price/trade of an item might be skyrocketing higher and higher with time, but then inevitably comes crashing down in the end.
Mania, Fear, And Hysteria
Many times, economic bubbles can result from mania surrounding a product or service. Values of an item are pushed beyond normality, and everyone tries to buy the product at one time so that they might make a profit. The stock market is prime real estate for such bubbles, as it can be difficult to accurately determine the value of a stock. Because it is difficult to know whether a stock is valued too high or low, many financial advisors suggest a diversification plan when it comes to investing, and not purchasing single stocks.
A classic example of economic mania (resulting in an economic bubble) is the Dutch Tulip Mania event. Tulip bulb prices between 1636 and 1637 shot up and crashed down within months. It’s said that prices were artificially inflated because everyone was buying bulbs hoping to turn around and sell them to make a profit. This is an unsustainable business model, because eventually the buying of the product outweighs the selling and the whole system comes crashing down.
A Lesson To Be Learned?
There are two schools of thought within economics when it comes to economic bubbles. Some people say that bubbles are predictable with study. Entire books have been written on how to “time” the stock market or financial future. However, mainstream economics believes that economic bubbles are both inevitable and unpredictable.
I lean towards the mainstream, and believe that bubbles can go unnoticed for a period of time before they inevitably burst and nearly everyone is surprised. The free market is a good thing and eventually equalizes the markets, but it’s more of jerky roller coaster ride than smooth sailing. Not only is Wall Street affected, but Main Street as well.
The lesson to be learned? Diversify not only your investments, but also diversify your income streams. The recent recession left a countless number of people unemployed. Many only had one job before the recession hit, and now they are left with collecting unemployment.
It’s All Psychological!
Contentment. It’s key when you’re wanting to handle your finances in a successful manner that leads to wealth. Too many get caught up in a mode of desperation and take part in the hype, mania, and overvaluing of products and services. It helps to have a calm spirit. Don’t allow the media to influence your path. When everyone is saying “buy now, buy now,” it’s probably not the best time to buy. Likewise, when everyone is selling, it may be unwise to sell.
Slow and steady! That’s the ticket. Having a long term game plan is crucial to your success. Build a financial foundation, and slowly build wealth, one dollar at a time. Then, when the economic bubbles pop, you can sit back and relax – you’ve built a strong house that can weather the storm! Don’t you agree?
Mr Credit Card says
It is a bubble when prices rise cannot be justified by fundamentals. Normally happens when “credit is easily available”.
It’s like we live in an inflation economy for ages, so a “wage increase” is not really a wage increase but just to keep up with rising prices.
An economy based on 60% consumer spending via debt and running a persistent current account deficit is a “bubble” – which is bursting now.
myfinancialobjectives says
The Tortoise wins the race:)
Great point Mr. Credit Card, your final statement really makes a valid point.
I just hope PF blogs are a bubble:)
Carol@inthetrenches says
The natural product of supply and demand. When a concert of a hot artist comes to town the scalper is able to gain much more for a concert that is sold out than one that has plenty of seats available. The bubble can be manipulated by bank lending practices and even insurance companies. Consider the current most popular drugs. If the insurance was not covering the drug would the manufacturer be able to charge the same amount and have the same sales for cash purchases? Consider the price of cars. If loans could not be obtained what would the average price of a car be based on cash value? The middle man is able to influence the price such as happened in the housing market. The danger of living in a credit driven economy is that everyone is affected, not only those who use the credit. The Bible strongly cautions about debt and credit because of all the negative effects on people and society. Good thought provoking article!
Khaleef @ KNS Financial says
I actually think that bubbles are extremely easy to predict. Just find a market where demand is being fueled by debt and speculation (rather than on fundamentals), and you’ll eventually have a budget!
If people are buying a product because they think they’ll find a “bigger idiot”, then you’re going to have a bubble.
It happens over and over again and we never learn from it. We just proclaim “this time it’s different”, and fall into the same trap!
John @ TheChristianDollar.com says
I think MyFinancialObjectives summed it up well: the tortoise wins the race. Invest slowly, consistently, and diversify well. Honored to have all of you comment. Thanks to Mr. Credit Card for his input!